How NASA Can Achieve Monthly Moon Landings: A Step-by-Step Strategy

Introduction

NASA envisions reaching the lunar surface as often as 21 times over the next two and a half years—essentially a landing every month. This ambitious cadence demands a fundamental shift in how the agency procures landers, learns from recent failures, and strengthens its industrial backbone. The following guide outlines the critical actions NASA must take, from overhauling acquisition strategies to improving supply chain resilience, all while coordinating crewed and robotic missions. Follow these steps to understand the roadmap toward routine lunar access.

What You Need (Prerequisites)

• Improved oversight of NASA's industrial base to ensure manufacturers meet quality and schedule milestones.
• Robust supply chain management to prevent delays that have plagued past lander deliveries.
• Separate tracking for non-human-rated landers (robotic and cargo) apart from the Human Landing System (HLS) contracts with SpaceX and Blue Origin.
• Lessons learned from three of the last four US landing attempts that failed, including root-cause fixes.
• Funding and political commitment for sustained lunar infrastructure development.

Step-by-Step Guide

1. Step 1: Overhaul the Lunar Lander Procurement Approach

   NASA currently relies on a mix of competed contracts and fixed-price agreements for commercial landers. To support 21 landings, the agency must streamline acquisition by reducing bureaucratic overlap—e.g., consolidating multiple small-contract vehicles into more flexible, performance-based agreements. This allows vendors to innovate without excessive reporting burdens, while NASA retains authority to halt funding for underperformers. Additionally, pre-negotiate options for recurring missions to avoid re-competing each landing.

2. Step 2: Rectify the Causes of Recent Landing Failures

   Of the last four US attempts (both government and commercial), three failed. Common issues include navigation errors, engine cutoff, and communication dropouts. NASA must mandate thorough pre-launch simulations with redundant guidance systems. For example, incorporate backup inertial measurement units and altimeters. Also, require independent verification of lander software by a third party before each flight. Regularly update failure databases and share learnings across all vendors.

3. Step 3: Strengthen Oversight of the Industrial Base

   NASA's supply chain includes hundreds of small and medium-sized suppliers for components like thrusters, avionics, and landing gear. The agency should assign dedicated oversight teams to each critical supplier, performing quarterly audits. Establish early warning indicators (e.g., delivery delays, quality defects) and intervene before small issues cascade. Use data from the Lunar Surface Innovation Consortium to identify fragile nodes in the supply network and dual-source essential components.

4. Step 4: Better Manage the Supply Chain for Timely Delivery

   Delays in delivering landers have already pushed back the Artemis timeline. NASA must implement integrated master schedules that tie all lander builds (both HLS and smaller commercial ones) to a common timeline. Require vendors to maintain 90% parts readiness 12 months before launch. Use digital twin technology to simulate assembly sequences and identify bottlenecks. For items with long lead times (e.g., heat shields, batteries), NASA should bulk-purchase and stockpile them for multiple missions.

5. Step 5: Coordinate Robotic and Cargo Landings with Crew Missions

   While SpaceX and Blue Origin develop human-rated landers under HLS, dozens of robotic and cargo landings will be needed to scout for a future Moon base, demonstrate resource utilization, and test sustained operations during the two-week lunar night. NASA must create a joint mission planning office that sequences crewed flights with pre-deployment cargo. For instance, send a cargo lander with supplies and rover ahead of each crewed landing. Use priority scoring for payloads to ensure high-value experiments get early slots.

   

6. Step 6: Develop and Validate Technologies for Night Operations and Mining

   Long-duration lunar stays require power, thermal management, and in-situ resource extraction. NASA should accelerate technology maturation by dedicating two robotic landings per year solely for testing equipment like solar-array towers to capture sun at low angles, regolith processing units for water extraction, and solid-state batteries that survive the extreme cold. Use rapid iteration contracts to update designs between flights based on telemetry.

7. Step 7: Increase Transparency and Public Accountability

   To maintain political support, NASA should publish quarterly dashboards showing lander status, key milestones, and budget spent per landing. Hold public briefings after each flight—especially failures—to explain corrective actions. Establish a Lunar Landing Council with members from NASA centers, industry, and international partners to review progress and recommend course corrections.

Tips for Success

• Learn fast from failures: Dedicate the first three months after each failed landing to a rapid root-cause closure, not lengthy investigations. Use red-teaming to challenge conclusions.
• Leverage commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) hardware where possible to reduce development time—e.g., use existing star trackers and reaction wheels from SpaceX's Dragon.
• Plan for lunar night survivability: Many cargo landers only need to operate for a few days, but if they support crew missions, they must endure two weeks of darkness. Require vendors to demonstrate thermal vacuum testing equivalent to a full lunar night.
• Build buffer into schedules: With 21 landings in 30 months, assume at least 4 will face major delays. Design the timeline with slack and use a rolling wave planning approach—firm up only the next 6 launches, leave others as placeholders.
• Foster competition: Even if SpaceX and Blue Origin lead human landers, open robotic lander contracts to new companies like Masten Space Systems or Firefly Aerospace to stimulate innovation and keep costs low.
• Integrate international contributions: Partner with ESA, JAXA, and others to provide lander subsystems (e.g., Canada's arm, Europe's communication network) in exchange for payload space—this spreads risk and builds global support.